Twitter Mentions Accurately Predict Winners in UK Elections 8:59 AM

Can the amount of times your candidate is mentioned on Twitter actually predict their fate on Election Day? A new report released by Tweetminister on Twitter and the UK elections says yes!

For the UK's recent elections, Tweetminister set out to discover if there was any sort of correlation between the number of times a particular candidate or party was mentioned on Twitter and how that candidate or party performed on Election Day. The results are astounding.

Tweetminister found that their individual seat predictions based on Twitter mention volume were 69% accurate while regional party performance predictions were 87.5% accurate and national predictions were 90.5% accurate.

The full report is available below for your downloading and highly recommended sharing pleasure:
Tweetminster Predicts: Findings

Why @JebBush Joining Twitter Matters 8:00 AM

If you have ever e-mailed former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, you know exactly why his joining Twitter yesterday is significant. During his time as Governor, Bush was notorious for personally responding to all e-mails sent to him within 24 hours. Bush understood and embraced a concept that few politicians of his time understood – direct media (a term coined by TechRepublican founder, David All). Before Twitter and Facebook became widely adopted platforms for politicians to directly communicate with voters and vice-versa, Bush understood the essential concept of direct access and transparency.

Even with the boom of politicians setting up Twitter accounts and Facebook pages, few are using these social platforms to personally engage directly with voters and constituents. If Jeb Bush’s previous history with e-mail is any indication of how he may use Twitter, he could serve as a standard-bearer amongst politicians using the platform effectively.

Bush has had a Twitter account (@cgables43) set up since March 11, 2009, but had never tweeted until yesterday when he announced that he would be moving to a new Twitter handle - @JebBush. As word leaked out of Bush’s new account and the legitimacy of the account was confirmed by Bush’s staff, @JebBush’s following exploded to 1,000 followers in one hour. As of 7:30 a.m. this morning, 15 hours after launching the new account, Bush has surpassed the 2,000 follower mark.

As with any move Jeb Bush makes, politicos inside and outside of Florida can add this latest Twitter maneuver to the growing list of more public appearances the former Governor has made in the past few months - moves sure to create buzz for a Bush 2012 candidacy.

Bush has yet to tweet from the new @JebBush account, but hopefully the move to the new Twitter handle is a sign that Bush is ready to embrace Twitter.  Jeb Bush has seemingly always been a tech-geek of sorts, whether it is sporting off his new Kindle to Tucker Carlson in an Esquire interview, or featuring his beloved Blackberry in his official portrait which hangs in the state Capitol. If Bush applies the same discipline he applies to other forms of electronic communication, I am confident that @JebBush will quickly become one of the most effective and popular tweeting politicians.

Cross-posted from TechRepublican.com

Carole Crist, "The TWITTER," and The Real Housewives of NYC 11:16 AM

On Friday, I noticed that Florida's First Lady, Carole Crist, had registered a Twitter handle and had actually sent out two tweets in late 2009.  Out of curiosity, I checked to see who Crist was following on Twitter, only to find out that she had followed Jill Zarin, star of of Bravo's The Real Housewives of New York City, before following her husband - Florida Governor Charlie Crist.  My political/pop-culture curiosity spawned this tweet...

...which to my total shock elicited a response from Zarin herself:

 

The exchange, while politically irrelevant, was for me, highly entertaining.  A few weeks ago, I had trouble coming up with an answer to The Shorty Awards' question "What's the most interesting connection you've made through Twitter?"  Now, I definitely have my answer.

On a slightly more serious note, I think it would be interesting to see Florida's First Lady actively engage on Twitter.  Crist is the first First Lady I have seen with a seemingly authentic Twitter account, and if she decides to truly invest and engage on the platform, it could go a long way to enhancing the image of her husband, Charlie Crist, online.

The Case for 1 Twitter Account 10:14 PM

Since publishing The 7 Deadly Sins of Tweeting Politicians (which has now been shared with tens of thousands of individuals), I have received numerous questions about how best to avoid Sin #6: Lying (or hiding) who is actually tweeting for you.  Here's how I describe this sin in the earlier blog post:

In an ideal scenario (mostly for the potentially disastrous entertainment value) all politicians would personally tweet, but it is widely understood that the majority do not.  A bigger mistake than not personally tweeting though is lying about it.  If your staff tweets for you, make that clear.  You don't want to be giving an interview on CNN and have a staff member send out a tweet, supposedly from you, at the very same moment.  It is not difficult to know who is genuine and who is not on Twitter and other social platforms.

Many have assumed wrongly that I would recommend political campaigns set up two separate Twitter accounts in order to keep tweets from the candidate and tweets from staff or press separate.  Political consultant @aprylmarie pointed out this evening:

In addition to Florida Republican gubernatorial hopeful @BillMcCollum whose campaign launched a separate Twitter channel for staff tweets this week (@Team_McCollum), U.S. Senate GOP hopeful @MarcoRubio also launched a separate Twitter account for his press shop - @RubioPress.

Personally, I am not a fan of the multiple Twitter channel model of separating staff tweets from candidate or elected official tweets.  The simpler you make things on the internet, the more success you have.  Having multiple Twitter accounts that people have to follow will become a nuisance to your Twitter followers and ultimately, I believe, your campaign will not be as effective.

Virginia's Governor-elect, @BobMcDonnell offers a better model.  For tweets supposedly from Bob McDonnell himself, the tweet reads as if Bob himself was typing the message:

Tweets from staff were very clearly indicated as such within the tweet:

This appeared to be a very effective model for the McDonnell campaign.  With one single Twitter account posting updates from the candidate, staff and press team, the McDonnell campaign made it easy for supporters to follow every aspect of the campaign in one Twitter channel which amassed 7,152 followers before Election Day.

83% of Twitter Users Registered to Vote? 1:52 PM

Here's a great example of the power of Twitter.  Last week, I tweeted the following:

I would love to see a study from @pew_internet showing what percentage of Twitter/Facebook users are registered to vote.

This morning, I received a response via email from Pew Internet Research Specialist, Aaron Smith, answering my question in detail:

In our post-election survey conducted in November 2008, 85% of Americans claimed to be registered to vote. For internet users as a whole the figure is 88%; for users of social networking sites the figure is 86%; and for those who use Twitter or other status update services, the figure is 83%. Ultimately, all of these are within the margin of error—we found no statistically significant differences on this question based on social media use.

There are a few caveats to this. For one thing, telephone surveys tend to overstate voter registration and turnout somewhat (since people don’t want to admit that they aren’t registered, or did not vote in an election). Second, the Twitter and social networking universe in November 2008 was quite a bit smaller than it is now. However, while the magnitude of the numbers above might be overstated I don’t have any reason to believe that the differences between groups are any more or less pronounced than we found in 2008. If anything I’d guess that users of social media applications have gotten more like the overall population in their voting behavior as increasing numbers of middle-aged people adopt these services (since older adults are generally more likely to be registered voters than the young people who were early adopters of Twitter and social networking sites).

4 Ways to Track #NY23, #VAGOV and #NJGOV on Twitter 2:00 PM

Want to track the latest breaking news coming out of Virginia, New Jersey and New York's 23rd congressional district on Tuesday's big election?  Twitter is the place to do it.  Here are 4 ways (for Twitter users and non-Twitter users) to track these three crucial races on Twitter:

Twitter.com - Track the races in real-time from within Twitter.com in your browser:

• NY-23 
• VA GOV 
• NJ GOV

External Twitter clients - Want to track the races on TweetDeck, Seesmic, Tweetie or another Twitter client of choice?  No problem.  Here are some good search parameters for you to copy and paste into your favorite Twitter client:

• NY-23:  NY23 OR NY-23 OR Scozzafava OR dougforcongress
• VA GOV: vagov OR vuv OR bobmcdonnell OR creighdeeds
• NJ GOV:  christiefornj OR joncorzine OR ChrisDaggett OR takebacknj OR njgov OR savejersey OR corzine OR christie OR daggett
  

search.twitter.com - Real-time stream of tweets based on targeted search parameters in your browser.  You do not need to be a Twitter account holder to view these searches: 

• NY-23 
• VA GOV 
• NJ GOV

RSS - Subscribe to RSS feeds of the Twitter conversation surrounding these races in your favorite RSS reader:

• NY-23  
• VA GOV  
• NJ GOV
  

The 7 Deadly Sins of Tweeting Politicians 7:50 AM

I have gone on a politician purge, unfollowing the vast majority of elected officials and candidates that I previously followed on Twitter.  Why?  No single group of people is more boring on Twitter.  Don't take my word for it, a recent study by the University of Maryland agrees.

So to keep your elected official or candidate from making the same mistakes their tweeting predecessors have made, I have compiled a list of The 7 Deadly Sins of Tweeting Politicians:

1. Only using Twitter for "the ask."   I get it - at the end of the day social media means nothing to your candidate unless it raises them more money.  And while I sharply disagree with that philosophy, I understand that's the conversation going on in most campaigns.  But just as in offline fundraising, to raise the most money online a relationship must first be built.  Obama New Media Director Joe Rospars has said, if you have 10 emails, it is the 8 emails that don't ask for money that lay the groundwork for the two that are.  The same rule should be applied to Twitter.
   
2. Using Twitter as another press release distribution service.  First off, the press release is dead for political campaigns.  Instead of using press release corporate speak, listen to the way people communicate on Twitter and adapt the way you communicate your message directly to your supporters.
3. Not listening.  Most politicians see Twitter as a one-way channel to push content out to.  The good tweeting politicians see Twitter as a chance to gain valuable feedback from voters.  Politicians who are not listening to what the Twitterverse is saying about issues important to them are missing out on a huge opportunity.  Twitter can and should be used to test and tweak your campaign's message.  Listen and consider engaging with an @reply to a voter once in a while.
   
4. Forgetting that you are human.   The point of social media is that it is, well, social.  Learn how to take off your online tie and show that you are a human being.  Yes, this means sometimes tweeting about your personal life!  Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill said it best when she said, "It's important for my constituents to know that I do my own laundry."
   
5. Sending your followers on a treasure hunt.  Twitter is a great way to drive traffic to stories, videos, donation pages, etc... but make sure you are linking directly to the content you want your followers to see.  If the content you want your followers to see is not on your homepage, don't tweet a link to your homepage and force your followers to dig through your site to find what you want them to find.  The key to success on the web is eliminating friction and that's an important value to remember when linking to content via Twitter.
6. Lying (or hiding) who is actually tweeting for you.  In an ideal scenario (mostly for the potentially disastrous entertainment value) all politicians would personally tweet, but it is widely understood that the majority do not.  A bigger mistake than not personally tweeting though is lying about it.  If your staff tweets for you, make that clear.  You don't want to be giving an interview on CNN and have a staff member send out a tweet, supposedly from you, at the very same moment.  It is not difficult to know who is genuine and who is not on Twitter and other social platforms.
   
7. Tweeting your favorite quotes from historical figures just because you have nothing to say.  If you don't have anything valuable to say, say nothing at all.  An occasional quote from George Washington is inspiring, but your followers would much rather hear something you may think is mundane (such as the fact that you are walking your dog) than you proving that you are an inspirational-quote-buff.

Click here to download this post as a PDF

How Google's Social Search Will Work (and change everything) 3:48 PM

Last week, Twitter announced deals with search giants Google and Bing that will integrate relevant tweets from users' social networks into search results pages on the two search engines.  Bing released their version of this new Twitter integration last week with searchable tweets on a separate bing.com/twitter page. Just moments ago, Google unveiled their own version of "social search" along with this short video outlining how the new search results will function:

Capitalizing on their newly appointed status 10:25 PM

While I suspected the Twitterverse to take my "12 Twitter Lessons" column and run with it, I didn't expect a reaction quite like this. In addition to the phenomenal response the column got on Twitter, a few of the Politicians, Professionals and Press I mentioned in the column took their new title of one of Florida's Most Influential Twitterers and ran with it.

Shortly after the column was released, Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen re-published the column in a press release on her site. In my column, I touted Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen as one of the most impressive and open elected officials in Florida on Twitter. Posting the column on her site, only shows her further commitment to the social media space.




While I was grabbing lunch a few hours after we published the column on the Review, I received this email from CoreMessage, a well respected public-relations/communications consulting firm in Tallahassee. The email , sent to members of the national press and CoreMessage clients, touted CoreMessage Vice President Vivian Myrtetus' mention in the column. I was impressed. CoreMessage had realized how important it was to be perceived as the firm that "got" the internet. The email confirmed the reasons why I included Vivian in my column in the first place. The email ended up generating a tweet from Politico's Jonathan Martin, linking to the column.

Brilliant capitalization by Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen and CoreMessage.

What’s in a tweet? 12 Twitter Lessons From Florida’s Politicians, Professionals and Press 3:30 PM

This column was originally published by Jordan Raynor on SayfieReview.com

Earlier this week, when the press was all abuzz over Marco Rubio’s pending announcement regarding his Senate plans, where did they hear of his decision first? - you guessed it - Twitter. And as if you haven’t heard enough about Twitter over the last few months, Rubio’s announcement via the rapidly-growing social networking service only serves to further underscore Twitter’s permanent place on the mantle of Florida politics.

Over the last few months, media across the State of Florida have become increasingly fascinated by the free micro-blogging service of Twitter and how politicians, political operatives and journalists are utilizing this service to their benefit. And if you don’t think Twitter is becoming an effective tool for political campaigns and politicians, keep reading.

A Pew Report released earlier this year found that as of December 2008, 11% of internet users in America are using some sort of Twitter-like service. In March alone, Twitter grew an estimated 135%. So if Americans are moving towards services such as Twitter at such a rapid rate, then wouldn’t it make sense for elected officials, candidates, political operatives and journalists to do the same? Absolutely - and they are. Even amongst Florida politicos, Twitter is being embraced quickly.

But what is Twitter? What is the benefit of Twitter for your candidate or your cause? How does it work? This column is not meant to be a “How-to-Guide” to Twitter. For more information on the free micro-blogging service, visit twitter.com. The one thing you do need to know for purposes of this column is that Twitter gives users a platform to communicate and interact with each other based on one simple question: What are you doing?

So what is the benefit of a service like Twitter for politicians and other politicos across Florida? Instead of telling you, I thought I would show you with the following 12 lessons that can be learned from some of Florida’s most influential political Twitterers (or “tweeps” for you Twitter pros). Each of these influential Florida politicos provides us with unique lessons to be learned as to how Twitter is being used to change Florida politics.


THE POLITICIANS

State Senator Dan Gelber (@DanGelber)
State Senator (D-35) and candidate for the United States Senate
Twitter followers: 1,035
Joined Twitter on: February 19, 2009

Just before Legislative Session, Senator Gelber sent out an email to his supporters announcing that he would be utilizing Twitter during the 60 day Legislative Session so that “more Floridians will be able to follow closely the state's legislative session and the major policy issues discussed in Tallahassee.” Well Senator, more Floridians are following closely - Gelber’s followers outnumber any other Florida State Legislator. Senator Gelber has also used Twitter successfully by establishing #legfl. One of the great tools within Twitter for political campaigns is the ability to bind Twitter conversations together with the use of what are called hash-tags. Gelber, in the same email to supporters, urged them to include #legfl in their Twitter updates regarding the Legislative Session so that anyone wanting to follow the conversation could do so with a simple Twitter search of #legfl. Binding together like-conversations also allows politicians to easily find who their supporters are and engage them further in their campaign. Similar to #legfl, #sayfie has caught on throughout the Twitter-verse with Twitter users discussing anything related to Florida politics.

Lesson #1: The value of Twitter is in its searchability. Campaigns can easily find supporters and potential voters who are talking about like-minded issues and invite them to engage in their campaign. Gelber’s announcement regarding his plans to tweet during Session also gained him tons of earned media exposure which will only help to increase his state-wide name ID for 2010.


Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (@IRL)
United States Congresswoman (R-18)
Twitter followers: 1,242
Joined Twitter on: April 1, 2008

You would be hard-pressed to find a member of the Florida Congressional delegation whose office is more open than Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s. Want to know who the Congresswoman is meeting with today? Subscribe to her Twitter updates. Ros-Lehtinen has shown that new technology like Twitter can make government more open to the people and she has done it wonderfully.

Lesson #2: Twitter and services like it can be used to make government more open and politicians more transparent.


State Senator Dave Aronberg (@aronberg)
State Senator (D-27)
Twitter followers: 479
Joined Twitter on: July 21, 2008

One of the challenges elected officials are facing with new media services such as Twitter and Facebook is finding what the right balance is between posting content about their public roles and their personal lives. Dave Aronberg may have found the balance. Throughout Legislative Session, Aronberg not only kept his supporters updated on the business of the Senate, but he also shared with them the ups and downs of his favorite teams’ sports seasons. At a recent conference I attended in D.C., Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill said that elected officials don’t understand that, “It is important that my constituents know that I do my own laundry.” Well, it looks like Senator Aronberg may understand.

Lesson #3: Each elected official must find the balance between sharing professional thoughts and personal ones as well. The strength of social networking is that it is “social” and it allows supporters to see a side of your life they couldn’t see previously.


Senator Mel Martinez (@MelMartinez)
United States Senator (R-FL)
Twitter followers: 2,516
Joined Twitter on: January 16, 2009

Senator Martinez is relatively new to Twitter but has already done a fantastic job of using the service to notify thousands of followers of his public appearances. Most of Senator Martinez’ tweets link followers to speeches he has just completed, interviews he has conducted or statements he has made. Twitter is opening the door for elected officials to broadcast their message to a much larger audience than before and Senator Martinez has been successful at it in a very short period of time.

Lesson #4: Twitter is a great way to notify supporters of upcoming events they may be interested in. Whether this is a television interview an elected official will be taking part in or a phone bank they have set up for their campaign, Twitter allows campaigns to notify and mobilize a candidate's most loyal supporters.


Congressman Kendrick Meek (@KendrickbMeek)
United States Congressman (D-17) and candidate for the United States Senate
Twitter followers: 835
Joined Twitter on: January 28, 2008

Remember all the talking heads after President Obama’s Address to Congress talking about members of Congress tweeting from the House Chamber? Guess who one of them was? Florida’s own Kendrick Meek. Meek sent this tweet from his personal Blackberry from the House Chamber floor. Unlike some elected officials who have staff and consultants manage their Twitter profiles, it appears that Meek is actively participating on Twitter himself, which is a critical step in the right direction for any campaign.

Lesson #5: It is absolutely critical to the success of any new media campaign for the candidate to actively engage and participate in the technology on a personal level. If there is not participation in new media from the top-down, your campaign will be severely hindered.


Sharon Day (@SharonDay)
Secretary of the Republican National Committee and Florida’s National Committeewoman to the RNC
Twitter followers: 1,890
Joined Twitter on: November 25, 2008

In Sharon Day’s campaign for Secretary of the RNC she utilized Twitter heavily to grow an online grassroots movement which then lobbied the members of the RNC to elect her Secretary. Day's upset win in January was undoubtedly bolstered by her presence on Twitter. Her campaign is a shining example of how best to mobilize supporters online to take action on a candidate's behalf. Even today, Secretary Day boasts more followers on Twitter than RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s campaign (Disclosure: Justin Sayfie and I consulted with Sharon on new media strategy for her campaign).

Lesson #6: Twitter can and should be used as a platform for candidates to encourage their supporters to take action on their behalf.


THE PROFESSIONALS

Eric Jotkoff (@Eric_Jotkoff)
Communications Director - Florida Democratic Party
Twitter followers: 250
Joined Twitter on: February 22, 2009

One of the advantages of Twitter is that you can directly reply to other tweets. Sounds like something pretty important to a Communications Director at a state party, doesn’t it? Eric Jotkoff is a good example of how to respond instantly to the world in support of your candidate or cause (check out this response to Josh Hafenbrack). He might not have a ton of followers, but he doesn’t need them. Jotkoff is able to directly respond to Florida’s most influential political reporters without an email or a phone call.

Lesson #7: Professional political operatives are using Twitter to respond to attacks and capitalize on bad news for their opponents. Twitter allows them to do this faster and on a much larger scale than they were able to do before.


Vivian Rudd Myrtetus (@Vivskivs)
Former Communications Director, Governor Crist
Twitter followers: 293
Joined Twitter on: July 29, 2008

A seasoned communications professional on the Florida scene, Myrtetus has successfully embraced Twitter and has leveraged it to the advantage of her clients. If lobbyists, operatives and politicos across Florida are looking for an example of how to utilize Twitter to influence elected officials, Myrtetus is a great place to start. During Legislative Session, she utilized Twitter to drive followers to lobby state legislators on numerous issues including Sunrail and Save our Secret Ballot.

Lesson #8: Leverage the power of your supporters to take action for your cause or campaign.


Steve Schale (@SteveSchale)
State Director for Florida - Obama for America
Twitter followers: 243
Joined Twitter on: February 11, 2009

Last year, Steve was busy organizing one of the most impressive ground-games in the country for Obama for America here in Florida. This brightest of rising stars’ move onto Twitter should tell politicos a lot about the impact Twitter is having on politics in Florida and across the country. In his short time since joining the Twitter community, Schale has effectively used Twitter to promote Dan Gelber (check out his Twitter background) and continue to support and defend the President he was so critical to electing.

Lesson #9: Political operatives in Florida and across the country are waking up to the benefits of Twitter and other forms of new technology. Operatives not on Twitter: take note!


THE PRESS

Sayfie Review (@SayfieReview)
Twitter followers: 558
Joined Twitter on: June 13, 2008


Shameless self-promotion aside, I believe there is a lesson to be learned in what Sayfie Review is doing on Twitter. By feeding the Florida Politics Blog Ticker channel as well as a select number of stories and videos into Twitter, the Review is now reaching a wider audience of readers interested in Florida political news and making it easier for our existing audience to access the Sayfie Review. The Review's use of Twitter and other web 2.0 features earned ITFlorida’s first ever Excellence in Web 2.0 award. This week, the Review unveiled the brand new Twitter-Facebook Blog Ticker channel to keep our readers updated on what Florida's elected officials are doing. With the continued free-fall of print advertising (see this article on the Washington Post’s 33% decline in the past year), more news organizations have jumped on the Twitter bandwagon in an effort to drive more traffic to their online content and increase page views.

Lesson #10: By tweeting links to stories, news organizations across the state are driving more traffic to their sites, expanding their readership and making their content accessible in easier formats for their existing audience.


Paul Flemming (@PaulFlemming)
State Editor, Florida Gannett Newspapers
Twitter followers: 235
Joined Twitter on: March 3, 2009

If you weren’t following Paul Flemming’s tweets during Legislative Session, you were most likely getting your information later than those who were. Throughout Legislative Session, few reporters utilized Twitter to actually break news. Sure everyone was linking to their blog posts in an effort to drive new readers to their content (which is not a bad thing), but Flemming took it a step further and consistently broke news ahead of others from the State Capitol. Whether from his desktop or his iPhone, Flemming was keeping us all up-to-the-second while on the go during this busy Session. I should also mention that The St. Petersburg Times’ Buzz Blog also provided a great example of this by tweeting live from the Crist wedding in December.

Lesson #11: Twitter allows reporters to break news faster than ever. While on the go, Twitter makes it easy to update your followers via cell phones allowing you to stay ahead of the story.


Gary Fineout (@fineout)
Blogger
Twitter followers: 194
Joined Twitter on: August 26, 2008

A few weeks ago, I received a “direct message” from @fineout on Twitter asking if we would post his story on the Sayfie Review. I was impressed. Not an email or a phone call, but a Twitter message less than 140 characters in length. Reporters, and politicians alike, are quickly learning how to say what they need to say in 140 characters or less. Fineout has used Twitter to break news, drop quotes from stories and link interested readers to his stories on his new blog. Fineout’s tweets have been posted on blogs and his stories picked up by numerous papers. He is proving that you no longer have to work for the major daily newspapers to get your content in front of the eyes who want it.

Lesson #12: Journalists can use Twitter to drive traffic to their content. More journalists are doing this on a national scale and soon, more and more will be doing it in the Sunshine State.

So there you have it - 12 lessons we can learn from a handful of Florida’s political Twitterers. Using Twitter and other social networks successfully takes time, effort and a deep understanding of how to implement classic communications strategies in these new media platforms. If you would like more information on how NetPower Strategy can help your campaign implement these best practices click here to contact us now or feel free to reach me directly at jordan@netpowerstrategy.com.






You can follow me on Twitter @JordanRaynor

My Interview with Florida Matters 1:38 PM

Last week, I had the privilege of participating in an interview with WUSF's Florida Matters. The interview focused on how new technology and the internet changed the 2008 elections and how citizens can continue to use new technology to keep their leaders accountable.